With the Thanksgiving long weekend in sight, many will be carving their turkey or ham with smaller family gatherings, thanks to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions. Beyond the dining room table, however, some mostly mild and clear conditions await for much of the long weekend — but the holiday Monday is another story, thanks to distant Hurricane Delta, whose prodigious moisture, and a slight change in direction, could make the difference between a pleasant end to the long weekend, or a showery one. For a closer look, read on.
Daytime highs in the low 20s for many Saturday
Cold front may bring showers later Saturday, cooler temperatures Monday
Uncertain forecast on Hurricane Delta’s effects on the holiday Monday
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: WARM AND SUNNY, COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS
One thing that doesn’t look to be in much dispute is the start to the long weekend. Province-wide, most of the province is looking at clear, or mostly-clear skies, for Saturday, with daytime highs around or even a bit above 20. Consider this the curtain call for any late summer weather.
A passing cold front may bring some showers behind it through the afternoon and evening — along with a sharp temperature drop back down into the low-to-mid teens by Sunday, though offset somewhat by mostly sunny conditions.
MONDAY: CLOSELY WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF DELTA
That’s what we know about Saturday and Sunday — it’s Monday where it gets somewhat tricky, and the culprit is presently nowhere near Canada.
Hurricane Delta, a powerful Category 2 storm set to bring extreme rain to Mexico and, later, to the U.S. Gulf Coast, looks set to take a track deep into the heart of North America later this week.
Though it will rapidly lose strength after its Gulf landfall, that’s still a lot of moisture involved, and its path will take it north through the eastern U.S. and in the general direction of southern Ontario.
However, we are still several days away, and as such, the storm’s effects on the province aren’t known for certain, and will depend on the influence of a trough in the west.
A faster track further to the north and west would bring an increasing threat for a widespread soaking rain as we go through the day on Thanksgiving Monday, hampering any outdoor plans with COVID-19 restrictions in mind.
“Some computer models have the rain reaching all the way to eastern Ontario and southern Quebec during the afternoon and evening,” says Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham.
But a slower track, or a track further to the south and east, could make the storm’s effects more of a U.S. story, and the holiday Monday could go out with some pleasant fall weather, although with some cooler temperatures across the Greater Toronto Area and the chance of showers for parts of eastern Ontario later in the day.
“The exact timing and exact track for a tropical cyclone five days out is highly uncertain, but that will be the key to our Thanksgiving forecast,” Gillham adds.
Check back for updates as we continue to monitor the effects of Delta.